World Politics Scenario

In the 21^st century, the top issues confronting across nations are diseases, international crimes and climate change. The world today is fragmented along political, economy, military and demographic lines. Multiple ideologies are confronting for influence, power and success. The major lines of analysis can be philosophical, military, economic, trade, political and hegemony related. Throughout the centuries, big powers wanted to expand and indulge in warfare. Ultimately relationships between countries are not fixed; they are fluid and dynamic. As per the above graph, it will be assumed that by the end of 2030, India will be economic power from emerging countries.

Definition of Great Power 

Economic prosperity does not translate into geopolitical power. Projecting power is very crucial. Powers are of two types: Hard Power and Soft Power.

Hard Power like Military, Trade, Science and Technology, Currency.

Soft Power like Culture, Language and Religion.

Military Hard Power can come in many forms like Blue Water Navy + Large standing forces + Military alliances + Nuclear capabilities.

For example USA has the world biggest Navy along with their 7 fleets which maintained his hegemony from 1950 onward. They also have the biggest list of allies. Neither Russia nor China have such powerful navies. 

The geographical position of USA gives its special advantages :

1. Self contend and secure
2. Oceans on two sides (Atlantic + Pacific Ocean)
3. Friends on either sides (Canada + Mexico) and NAFTA (North American Foreign Trade Agreement) 

Present Situation

US remain the undisputed global power and military due to : 

• its huge expenditure on military 
• its unbeatable blue water navy
• its large dominance of soft power which is more effective than hard power

Pure communism has collapsed and retreated around the world. Russia has become unpredictable and it now uses every opportunity to assert his power like attacks on IS states on Syria, Georgia War (2008) and Ukraine issue.

On the other hand, China desperately wishes to secure its water (South China Sea) against future aggression. Chinese keeps criticizing Americans for abusing its superpower status and for instigating regional tensions. After 2008, President Obama followed a different path. He gradually withdrew the military from everywhere to meet the cost of expense on military. Present President Donald Trump policy will be very crucial for other countries in terms of Hard Power.

Road Ahead

There are clear proofs that American soft power outstrips others by a large measure. This will not change overnight. The world has accepted that democracy is the best idea. For China which is not a democracy, it still has a long term to go on a per capita income basis. American protection for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will continue. Russia is so called democracy but it runs autocratically.

Finally the renowned scientist Stephen Hawking recently says that’’ the rise of Donald Trump and Britain's Brexit vote come at "the most dangerous time in the history of the human race. Together, they are a reminder that we are at the most dangerous moment in the development of humanity. We can do this [overcome the challenges], I am an enormous optimist for my species; but it will require the elites, from London to Harvard, from Cambridge to Hollywood, to learn the lessons of the past year. To learn above all a measure of humanity. We now have the technology to destroy the planet on which we live, but have not yet developed the ability to escape it. Perhaps in a few hundred years, we will have established human colonies amid the stars, but right now we only have one planet, and we need to work together to protect it.”